The Self-Storage Supply Divide: Why Some Markets Are Getting Stronger While Others Face More Competition

By Brandon Robinson, National Director of Investment Sales, Calvary Realty

The national self-storage market is sending mixed signals in 2026.

New development is moderating from the elevated levels of recent years, population continues to grow in several major self-storage markets, and rental rates have shown some month-to-month improvement. But those national trends don't tell the entire story.

The bigger story may be the growing divide between individual markets.

Some metropolitan areas continue to absorb new supply, while others are facing increased competition and rental-rate pressure. For owners and investors, understanding that difference has become increasingly important.

National Supply Is Moderating — But Development Isn't Stopping

Self-storage construction remains active.

According to Yardi Matrix, approximately 45.6 million net rentable square feet of self-storage was under construction nationally in May 2026, representing approximately 2.2% of existing stock.

Yardi's Q2 2026 supply forecast projects that new supply will gradually decline as a percentage of existing inventory, reaching approximately 1.7% by 2028.

Meanwhile, StorageCafe, using Yardi Matrix data, projects approximately 55.4 million square feet of new self-storage space will be delivered during 2026.

The takeaway: development may be moderating nationally, but millions of square feet of new competition are still entering the market.

The Supply Picture Changes Dramatically by Market

National averages can hide significant differences between individual markets.

For example, StorageCafe reports that Houston has approximately 11.49 square feet of self-storage inventory per capita and is projected to add nearly 2 million square feet of new space in 2026.

Dallas-Fort Worth has approximately 10.87 square feet per capita and is projected to add approximately 1.66 million square feet.

Those numbers matter because a growing population doesn't automatically mean a market can absorb unlimited new storage development.

Population Growth Is Only Half of the Equation

Some of America's fastest-growing states are also receiving substantial amounts of new self-storage development.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between July 2024 and July 2025:

• Texas added approximately 391,000 residents

• Florida added approximately 197,000 residents

• North Carolina added approximately 146,000 residents

• Georgia added approximately 99,000 residents

• South Carolina added approximately 80,000 residents

South Carolina led the country in percentage population growth during that period at approximately 1.5%, followed by Idaho at 1.4% and North Carolina at 1.3%.

Those demographic trends can support long-term storage demand.

However, investors should compare population growth with the amount of existing and incoming storage supply. A rapidly growing market can still experience pricing pressure when new storage inventory grows faster than demand.

Rental Rates Are Showing the Supply Divide

Recent rental-rate data illustrates why investors should look beyond national averages.

Yardi Matrix reported that national advertised self-storage rates increased 0.8% month-over-month in May 2026, reaching approximately $16.34 per square foot on an annualized basis across its combined mix of unit sizes and types.

However, advertised rates remained approximately 1.8% lower year-over-year for both climate-controlled and non-climate-controlled units.

Of Yardi's top 30 metropolitan markets, 28 recorded negative year-over-year movement in those categories.

That distinction is important.

Month-to-month improvement is encouraging, but it does not necessarily mean rental rates have entered a broad national recovery.

Square Feet Per Capita Is Useful — But It Isn't the Whole Story

One metric investors frequently use when evaluating self-storage markets is square feet of storage per capita.

The concept is simple: compare the amount of existing storage inventory with the population living in the market.

But investors should be careful about using any single number as an automatic signal to buy or avoid a market.

A market with relatively high storage inventory per capita could still perform well if population growth, household formation, income levels, visibility, barriers to entry, and local demand are strong.

Likewise, a market with relatively low inventory could still be a poor investment if population or economic fundamentals are weak.

Square feet per capita should be one component of a broader market analysis.

Five Numbers Investors Should Check Before Buying

Before acquiring or developing a self-storage facility, investors should consider evaluating at least five market indicators:

1. Existing SupplyHow much rentable self-storage space already exists within the property's realistic trade area?

2. Development PipelineHow many facilities are under construction, planned, or proposed nearby?

3. Population and Household GrowthIs the surrounding population expanding, stable, or declining?

4. Rental Rate TrendsAre advertised rates increasing, stable, or declining?

5. Competitive Occupancy and Lease-UpAre existing facilities maintaining occupancy, or are newer properties relying heavily on discounts and promotions to attract tenants?

Looking at these factors together provides a much clearer picture than relying on any one statistic.

What This Means for Existing Owners

Owners should also pay attention to their local development pipeline.

A new facility entering the trade area doesn't automatically mean an existing property will underperform. Established facilities may have advantages such as location, visibility, existing tenant relationships, online reviews, and an established operating history.

However, new competition can influence street rates, concessions, marketing expenses, and customer acquisition.

Owners who understand what is being developed around them can make more informed decisions about pricing, marketing, capital improvements, and tenant retention.

The Bottom Line

There isn't one national self-storage market.

There are thousands of individual trade areas, each with its own supply, demand, demographics, competition, rental rates, and development pipeline.

That's why investors should be cautious about making acquisition decisions based solely on headlines such as "the South is growing" or "self-storage development is slowing."

Both statements can be true nationally while conditions within a specific three- or five-mile trade area tell a completely different story.

In today's market, understanding where supply is being added—and whether demand can absorb it—may be just as important as finding a growing population.

For owners and investors, the opportunity isn't simply identifying where self-storage is growing.

It's identifying where demand and supply remain in balance.

Sources & Resources

Yardi Matrix — Self Storage Market Outlook, June 2026Published July 2, 2026

Yardi Matrix — Q2 2026 Self Storage Supply Forecast UpdatePublished May 13, 2026

StorageCafe — 2026 Self Storage Supply ReportSelf-storage supply and rental-rate analysis utilizing Yardi Matrix data

U.S. Census Bureau — Vintage 2025 Population EstimatesState population growth estimates for July 2024–July 2025

Self Storage Association — Research & DataIndustry research and operator resources

Disclaimer

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Self-storage market conditions vary significantly by location. Investors should conduct independent due diligence and evaluate local supply, demand, competition, financial performance, and other relevant factors before making investment decisions.